Still, these comps can prove useful as a road map, outlining a set of possible paths the newbies can travel.
For instance, rookie LeBron James’s top two comps since 2000 via this updated model are Russell Westbrook … and Michael Carter-Williams.
Moreover, the comps themselves are far from a perfect predictor.
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Playoff Races, Injured Stars, and the NBA’s Biggest Questions of the Second Half Ben Simmons Can’t Shoot, but He Sure As Hell Knows How to Defend Lamar Odom on Life After His ComaĪ few caveats: As Trae Young displayed last season (15.5 points per game in the first half of the season, 22.8 in the second), players’ fortunes can change after the halfway point, thus lifting or dropping the quality of their comps. For instance, to better account for playing time differences and the increased pace now versus earlier in the century, it uses per-75-possession points, rebounds, and assists instead of their per-game equivalents. (In other words, these comps are offense only.) A couple of behind-the-scenes fiddles refine the calculations further. Primarily, it removes a defensive component (last year’s included a steals-plus-blocks category) because individual defense is so difficult to capture, particularly in basic box score stats. The model involves a few tweaks from last year.
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We’ll use a mix of process stats (usage rate 3PAr, or 3-point attempt rate and FTr, or free throw rate) and results stats (TS%, or true shooting percentage, a measure of overall scoring efficiency and points, rebounds, and assists) to compare each current rookie to every other rookie this century to find those with the closest overall statistical profile. Just like last year, we’ll generate a set of player comps to gain a sense of the ways each prominent rookie’s career might unfold. In early December, John Hollinger wrote for The Athletic that aside from the top two picks, this class “is every bit as bad as people feared,” the lottery is “a stinker,” and several of its members are “frightfully bad.” A month later, rookie assessments are no more flattering-both in the moment and in what they forecast about rookies over the rest of the season and beyond. These early returns are somewhat less than inspiring. Check out all of The Ringer ’s coverage of the 2020 NBA trade deadline
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